Dry Corridor
El Niño in El Progreso, Guatemala: Dry Corridor vegetation from 2025 to 2026
Written by Eduardo Garcia · Co-founder / CEO / CTOPublished 23 September 2026
#El-Niño#Dry-Corridor#El-Progreso#Guatemala
El Progreso is a department of Guatemala, in Central America, about 1,922 km² of official area. It sits northeast of Guatemala City, on the Dry Corridor, and its capital is Guastatoya. From 21 August to 21 September the mean vegetation index falls by 11%, from 0.535 in 2025 to 0.477 in 2026. The 2026 drought coincides with El Niño developing, and on the Motagua Valley, which runs through the department, rain for the period sits about 33% below normal, according to INSIVUMEH, as cited by Copernicus in “Drought affects Guatemala’s Dry Corridor”.
That drop concentrates in the centre of the valley. Guastatoya sits in the middle of the department. Between El Rancho and San Agustín Acasaguastlán, Copernicus shows the valley green on 25 September 2025 and much drier on 20 September 2026. The northern and southwestern slopes stay greener than that centre.
The mean vegetation index falls from 0.535 to 0.477
The vegetation index scores how green the vegetation looks at each point: low values correspond to bare soil or dry vegetation, and high values to dense foliage.
El Progreso in 2025. Reddish is less green; green is more green. The centre of the valley looks drier than the northern and southwestern slopes.
El Progreso in 2026, same colour scale. Reddish tones spread along the Motagua Valley, between El Rancho and San Agustín Acasaguastlán.
Unusually low vegetation covers 164 km² in 2025 and 145 km² in 2026
Those hectares are the driest of each year against the rest of that same year.
2025. Mean vegetation index from 21 August to 21 September.
2026. Mean vegetation index from 21 August to 21 September.
El Progreso, Guatemala. Change 2025 → 2026. Source: Neometrico reading.
| Measure | Change 2025 → 2026 |
|---|---|
| Mean vegetation index | −11% (0.535 → 0.477) |
The weak vegetation cutoff falls from 0.23 to 0.18
Each year the reading takes the mean and the spread of the vegetation index across the department. It marks as weak what sits in the low part of that distribution, and as healthy what sits in the high part. In 2026 the whole valley drops and the cutoff drops with it, from about 0.23 in 2025 to about 0.18 in 2026. With the department drier, fewer points sit in the lower tail.
2025. The weak cutoff sits below ~0.23 and the healthy cutoff from ~0.74.
2026. The weak cutoff sits below ~0.18 and the healthy cutoff from ~0.67.
From 21 August to 21 September
Seven clear days enter in 2025; the last is 15 September. Ten enter in 2026, including 20 September. Those dates line up with the weather and with work in the field.
The area with a clear image sums about 1,720 km² in 2025 and about 1,772 km² in 2026, around 90% of the department. The areas without a clear image change from one year to the next.
2025: 21 August to 21 September, seven clear days. The last is 15 September.
2026: the same dates, ten clear days, including 20 September 2026.
How to read this on the ground
Under Agriculture & Livestock, the useful change on a holding is the vegetation index on its lots between 2025 and 2026, set against what is seen on the ground.
Conclusion
El Progreso reaches September 2026 with the mean vegetation index at 0.477.
If you follow El Niño on the Dry Corridor or hold land in El Progreso, which dates do you want us to read next year?
Questions
What does this piece measure?
The mean vegetation index over the area with a clear image, from 21 August to 21 September in 2025 and in 2026. In 2026 that mean is 0.477, against 0.535 in 2025. Copernicus links that year to El Niño and to scarce rain on the Motagua.
What is El Progreso?
A department of Guatemala, in Central America, about 1,922 km² of official area. It sits northeast of Guatemala City, on the Dry Corridor. Its capital is Guastatoya; the Motagua Valley runs through it.
What are 0.535 and 0.477?
The mean vegetation index over the area read: about 1,720 km² in 2025 and 1,772 km² in 2026, out of the official 1,922 km². Lower values mean less green; higher values mean greener. In 2026 that mean is 11% lower than in 2025.
Why does weak area fall from 164 to 145 km² if the valley is drier?
Because “weak” is marked against the mean and the spread of that same year’s vegetation index. In 2026 the mean falls and the weak cutoff falls with it, from about 0.23 to about 0.18. The comparison of level between years is the mean vegetation index, which falls by 11%.
How does this relate to the Copernicus article?
Copernicus published “Drought affects Guatemala’s Dry Corridor”, with scenes from 25 September 2025 and 20 September 2026, and cites INSIVUMEH rain. The vegetation index in this piece gathers the clear days from 21 August to 21 September.
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